Conspiracies, Science, Victoria's Inquiry Into Cults
"Overconfidence is a hallmark trait of people who believe in conspiracies, and they also significantly overestimate how much others agree with them, Cornell psychology researchers have found. The study indicates that belief in conspiracies may be less about a person's needs and motivations and more about their failure to recognize that they might be wrong.
Conspiracy believers not only consistently overestimates their performance on numeracy and perception tests, revealing they tend to be less analytic in the way they think. They also are genuinely unaware that their beliefs are on the fringe, thinking themselves to be in the majority 93% of the time, according to the research. The work counters previous theories that people believe conspiracies essentially because they want to, out of narcissism or to appear unique.
"This group of people are really miscalibrated from reality," said Gordon Pennycook, associate professor of psychology and the Himan Brown Faculty Fellow in the College of Arts and Sciences. "In many cases, they believe something that very few people agree with. Not only is it something that doesn't make a lot of sense, based on what we know about the world, but they also have no idea how far out in the fringe they are. They think they are in the majority in most cases, even if they're in a tiny minority."
Pennycook is the corresponding author of "Overconfidently Conspiratorial: Conspiracy Believers are Dispositionally Overconfident and Massively Overestimate How Much Others Agree with Them," which was published May 24 in Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. Jabin Binnendyk, a doctoral student in psychology, and David G. Rand of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology are co-authors.
Rand and Pennycook started this research in 2018, observing that people who believe conspiracies seem to have a real faith in their own cognitive abilities, "which is paradoxical," Pennycook said, "because prior work has shown that people who believe in conspiracies tend to be more intuitive."
The researchers conducted eight studies with 4,181 U.S. adults. Four studies assessed participants' levels of overconfidence using tests of perception, numeracy and cognitive reflection. Because overconfidence is difficult to measure – those who are the most incompetent are the least able to recognize their own incompetence, Pennycook said – the researchers used a new measurement approach to account for this effect. Rather than completing specific tests with measurable outcomes, participants were given tasks where actual performance and their perceived performances were unrelated, such as quickly discerning an image so obscured, they essentially have to guess what it is."
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The Guardian: Victorian government opposes Moira Deeming-backed push to include 'transgender ideology' in cults inquiry
"Liberal MP urges people to make submissions to inquiry as Labor insists it will look into harmful and coercive groups, not target trans communities"
"Victoria's equality minister says the government will oppose a push to examine "transgender ideology" as part of an upcoming inquiry into cults.
Earlier this month, anti-trans lobby group Binary published a blog post saying the Liberal party MP Moira Deeming was "urging people to make submissions" to the parliamentary inquiry into cults and organised fringe groups and had "shared a helpful document with suggested answers".
Deeming has told Guardian Australia she distributed the document that claims transgender ideology "operates like a cult and harms people in the same way".
The six-page document offers "tips" for people who believe "transgender ideology is harmful and cult-like" and stresses submissions highlighting three key elements – manipulation, domination and psychological harm."
" ... [T]he minister for equality, Vicki Ward, said the inquiry would not cover gender identity or healthcare, as the issues were outside its scope.
"This inquiry has been established to examine harmful and coercive groups, not target trans and gender diverse communities," Ward said.
"In Victoria, equality is not negotiable. We will continue to fight discrimination and ensure all Victorians can live safely, wholly and freely as their authentic selves.'"
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