Richard Spencer
The Telegraph
April 3, 2016
President Bashar al-Assad of Syria is facing a new challenge as a group of religious leaders from his powerful Alawite sect circulates a document demanding a change in its relationship to the regime and "dissociating" itself from his leadership.
The document, which its authors claim has been circulated to a significant number of Alawite sheikhs or religious leaders in Syria, was smuggled out of the country amid extreme secrecy and shown to The Sunday Telegraph and a handful of other European journalists.
Some of its authors have also briefed European governments on its contents.
However, it is unclear how much support it is likely to have on the ground.
The authors, acting anonymously out of fear for their security once back in the country, said they had been forced to act because of the extreme danger the sect was now facing. Its young men have been the vanguard of President Assad's fighting forces, both in the army and in local militias, but have suffered enormous losses - amounting to a quarter of all the sect's men of fighting age, by some counts.
Many Alawites also fear genocidal vengeance being wrought if Mr Assad is ultimately forced out by militant jihadists, who regard the Alawites as heretical as well as intrinsically tied to the regime and its massacres.
The sheikhs who spoke to The Telegraph said they wanted to forge a new relationship with Syria's Sunni majority, and had reached out to its religious representatives - though they would not identify who.
The document attempts to redefine the core faith of the Alawites, often regarded as a mysterious hybrid of Shia Islam. It claims it is a branch of Islam that is separate from both Shia and Sunni.
That is significant because the regime's support from Iran is partly explained by the historic links between their beliefs. It says the group should abandon its longstanding persecution complex - the Alawites have often been marginalised and oppressed, a historical trend that has been used to explain its aggression against the Sunni majority under the Alawite Assad regime and particularly in the civil war. Its members have been accused of repeated massacres of Sunni civilians.
The sheikhs said that the document was not calling on President Assad to step down - they said they were not advocating any particular solution to the crisis, and some authors favoured him staying on.
However, the document refers implicitly to the regime as "totalitarian", describes the uprising against the regime as "an initiative of noble anger", and says that the only future for Syria is as a secular, pluralist and democratic state.
"The ruling political power, whoever embodies it, does not represent us nor does it shape our identity," the document says - a key statement, given that the dominance of Alawites - including members of the Assad family as well as other high-ranking officials - in the regime has led to the two becoming almost synonymous in the eyes of the world.
"Nor do we, the Alawites, substantiate it or generate its power. The legitimacy of a regime can only be considered according to the criteria of democracy and fundamental rights."
One of the sheikhs who briefed The Telegraph said the group’s association with the regime meant that it was “rejected by everybody, and by Sunnis completely”, but the regime was a “product of Syria” as a whole, rather than of one sect.
The sect was now threatened by both the possibility of fresh vengeance against them and because militant Sunni jihadists groups had been given the opportunity to implement longstanding fatwas issued by clerics of centuries ago against them.
“The Alawites are now in a position of self-defence because it’s become necessary,” he said. But this had proved disastrous - he had himself lost 60 members of his extended family to the war.
With no political plan to promote, the sheikhs could not say what effect their document would have.
Leon Goldsmith, an expert on the sect and author last year of a study, Cycle of Fear: Syria’s Alawites in War and Peace, said it was potentially a turning point.
“I see this document as extremely significant,” he said. “It could well pose a mortal blow to Assad.”
He said the growing reliance of the regime on Iran and Russia could have provoked some sect leaders who had long been aware that the regime had endangered it by playing the sectarian card.
“It could lead to major divisions between the tribes and clans who have benefited more from the Assad regimes and those Alawites who benefited very little but nonetheless have paid the price of defending Assad,” he said. “Other important groups in the regime coalition could revise their positions.”
However, one western diplomat who has been seen the document urged caution. “It’s a very credible attempt to redefine the Alawite identity,” the diplomat said. “However, there’s no ‘big bang’ effect.”
One Alawite, who asked to be called just Mohammed, said there were many who were against Mr Assad but at the same time most felt they had no choice but to follow him.
“We all know that the Sunnis offered the Alawites nothing but death and threats,” he said. “The Alawites’ history is 1,000 years of persecution. The Sunnis intend to continue with this.”
Joshua Landis, an expert on Syria at the University of Oklahoma with close ties to the Alawite community, said there had been previous efforts by dissident individuals from “sheikh” families to establish themselves, but they had lacked authority.
“All the same, many Alawites are fearful about the future and are trying to think of some alternative option,” he said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/02/leaders-of-syrian-alawite-sect-threaten-to-abandon-bashar-al-ass/
